WHAT WILL HAPPEN? - AT 7:42 A.M. ET:  Amir Taheri, often quoted here because of his expertise on Iran, gives his sense of what will happen next in the country:

So is Iran heading for a civil war? My answer is a cautious no.

In a history spanning more than 2,500 years, the nation has seen only three events that can be described as civil wars: in the 5th century BC, in the 6th century AD and in 1911.

The reason is that as a power struggle builds up, Iranians know how to distinguish the side that's going to win. Once they've identified the winner, they will all rally to his side. No one is left on the other side to provoke a civil war.

Call it opportunism, if you like, but this is a part of the template of Iranian politics.

One's only hope is that the side that realizes it's losing won't deny the evidence and will agree to bow out without provoking a prolonged and bloody conflict.

We might always wonder what stronger support from other nations could have meant.  We'll never know.

June 23, 2009